And the glamor awards that we stay up late for to hear about. By the time they’re announced Jon Stewart will have used up his jokes, Sean Penn will have compared Bush to Ahmadinejad, and the television producers will have gone to a shot of Jack Nicholson grinning maniacally or napping at least 15 times. But us diehards will still be there for the presentations. And these two categories seem especially tough this year.

Achievement in directing

• “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, Julian Schnabel
  • This is the top movie on my ‘to see next’ list. It looks absolutely beautiful and original. But the Oscars seems to shy away from movies that have that ‘art-house’ feel, so I think Schnabel doesn’t win it.
• “Juno”, Jason Reitman
  • I didn’t see anything very special about the directing here. It was a good group of actors who pulled off an interesting script. It was thoroughly enjoyable to watch, but I certainly didn’t came away saying ‘wow’.
• “Michael Clayton”, Tony Gilroy
  • I haven’t seen this, but it’s interesting how much it hung around. But there’s zero buzz on Gilroy winning this.
• “No Country for Old Men”, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
  • I’m going on a limb here. I think the Coen Brother’s lose here, but the movie wins for Best Picture.
• * “There Will Be Blood”, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • While the Oscars clearly like the Coen Brothers, I think PTA should get rewarded here. He was nominated for Boogie Nights and Magnolia, both fantastic movies, and I think this one is even better. If he doesn’t win for this, when will he ever win? Of course, the same argument goes for the Coen Brothers, who won for their “Fargo” script, but not for directing. Still, I think There Will Be Blood was more impressive, and he gets my vote.

Best Feature Film

• “Atonement”
  • Maybe this is the dark horse that wins (see “Crash” from Oscar-past), but I doubt it.
• “Juno”
  • The Oscars never seems to reward comedies. I thought it was a ‘nice’ movie, but…
• “Michael Clayton”
  • I haven’t seen this…but it seems a little too ordinary of a movie to win against the last two nominees.
• * “No Country For Old Men”
  • Let’s be clear, these two categories are between this movie and There Will Be Blood. I just don’t see the Oscars going to a third movie. Both were incredible movies. They may not have always been easy to watch, but they were fabulous. The big question is whether it’s a sweep for one movie. My hunch says No Country was easier to understand and wins best picture.
• * “There Will Be Blood”
  • While I think the Oscar goes to No Country, I liked There Will Be Blood More. Daniel Day-Lewis was incredible, the entire movie looked gorgeous, and the soundtrack was stunning (by Radiohead’s Jonny Greenwood, it was found to be ineligible for an Oscar because too much of the score came from previous pieces he wrote. Booo). In the end this movie might be a little too esoteric for the Oscars, but it’s got my vote for the ’should win’ category.

And now to Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. The movies I’ve actually seen in this category are woefully few, so I’ll have to guess based on what I’ve heard.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
  • Can’t see Cate Blanchett winning for playing the same role for a second time in a not quite as good movie.
• * Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
  • Word is this category is between Christie and Cotillard. My hunch is that Christie will win - the Oscars love that old fashioned glamor - and I think the chance to reward her, for what is by almost every account a beautiful small movie about an older couple dealing with the effects of Alzheimer’s, is too good an opportunity to pass up.
• Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
  • Cotillard is the dark horse here, and a win is possible for her portrayal of Edith Piaf, but I wonder if enough of the voters saw this movie?
• Laura Linney in “The Savages”
  • I just want Laura Linney to play someone fulfilled and happy
• Ellen Page in “Juno”
  • I have mixed views on this nomination - Ellen Page did a great job, particularly because for the entire movie I didn’t really think about the fact that no 16 year-old could possibly be that cool. So she took what could have been an entirely unbelievable script and turned it into something real. For that it’s nice she got a nomination, but that’s likely get she’ll have this time.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• * Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
  • I’ll admit, I have no clue for this category. From what I’ve read it cames down to Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton, with a few mentions for Amy Ryan. I’m going with Cate, since getting nominated twice in one year for playing Queen Elizabeth and Bob Dylan must be worth something.
• Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
• Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
• Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
• Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”

We continue the countdown to Oscar Night with a look at the nominees. For today, let’s look at Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. (For a printable list of nominees click here).

My movie-going has been a bit lax for the past few months, so I haven’t seen all of the nominees. I’ll make some comments where I can, and make my best guess for who I think will win (or should win), but feel free to put in your two cents (and also mention who else should have been nominated).

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
  • I haven’t seen this, but I’ve heard good things. But there’s no way George is winning this one.
• * Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”
  • The movie was amazing, and so was Daniel Day-Lewis. Some have criticized him for repeating his “Gangs of New York” role, but I think this role was much more nuanced. He won once for “My Left Foot”, and got nominated for “In the Name of the Father” and “Gangs of New York” and I think he gets another. Besides this one, I’ve only seen Eastern Promises, but the buzz on all of the other movies just isn’t as strong. And really, this should go down as one of the all-time great performances on film.
• Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
• Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
  • Again, haven’t seen it but I’ve heard good things. He may be playing similar characters, but he’s been getting some great roles lately (with this and No Country).
• Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”
  • Viggo really was superb in this movie, but I think the movie wasn’t widely seen.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
• * Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
  • I have no clue why he’s in the supporting category - there must be a complicated algorithm to determine it, but I figured he and Daniel Day-Lewis would fight it out for the Best Actor prize. Since he’s here, he’ll get this one easily. One of the most terrifying characters we’ve seen in awhile.
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
  • I liked him here, but the movie was pretty bad, which I think made Phil seem even better.
• Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”
• Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”

I really haven’t done a good job of seeing these movies, particularly in the supporting role category. So I think my two choices are pretty standard. Can anyone add some comments? I’m especially curious about the Casey Affleck nomination, and what you thought of “Into the Wild”.

And we begin the countdown to the Oscars, this Sunday! The writer’s are back, the stars will be there, so we’re all set. Let’s start off with some talk about the Oscar Host. For a second year in a row the host will be Jon Stewart. I’m a big Jon Stewart fan, and last year I thought he did fine, not great, but not horrible. There’s a NYT article on his shortened preparations for this year (because of the writer’s strike), and also on his thoughts about the ‘tension’ in hosting the Oscars:

“The thing I always have to fight is I have a tendency to undercut. It’s the comedy of deflation in large amount. That doesn’t necessarily work on the greatest night of their lives. There is a strong tension between respecting these people and somehow deflating them while standing in that room. I like that. I find that tension interesting.”

But where does he rank in the history of Oscar hosts? I think he’s an improvement over Billy Crystal, although I did like the much-maligned hosting by Chris Rock. Taking a look through Oscars past (Wikipedia provides a list here) reveals that before the Billy Crystal takeover in 1990 (with a few Steve Martin years thrown in the mix) the Oscars had a lot of stars host as a group. Take 1987 when the unlikely trio of Chevy Chase, Goldie Hawn and Paul Hogan hosted the Oscars. Or 1973 that saw Carol Burnett, Michael Caine, Charlton Heston and Rock Hudson. Wow.

New York Magazine picks up on this earlier trend of stars-group hosting the Oscars, suggesting Francis Ford Coppola, Vince Vaughn, Ricky Gervais, and Jennifer Hudson as a potential foursome.

Thoughts on your favorite Oscar host? Or on what host(s) you would love to see?

Just released: The first trailer for “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”!!

Two quick thoughts: 1) I bet we’ll be able to craft a great drinking game based solely on how many “I’m too old” cracks Harrison Ford makes. 2) I know “Raiders of the Lost Ark” was clearly the best one, but am I alone in having a soft spot for “Temple of Doom”? I just can’t help it.